TM has not completed its first backup and many days.reports "Waiting to Complete First Backup". I'm having the exact same problem with an identical setup (M1 Max, Monterey 12.0.1, TM on external Thunderbolt 3 hard drive). Apple seems to be saying this is an issue with Monterey, but they aren't sure why yet. Snapshots are there, but no files in finder and the time machine is not recognized by other computers as a time machine that could migrate a backup. Then appears to not have run a backup at all. Trying new backup with drive directly connected to MBP and no encryption. My case is now with a senior Apple engineer. The backup finishes takes a couple of hours, and the status is "waiting to complete first backup". I have tried two freshly formatted drives (APFS encrypted) one mechanical and one SSD. On a new machine (M1 MAX) with fresh update of Monterey 12.0.1, set up new (not migrated from a previous machine) It has been impossible to finish a first time machine. MacRumors forum member likegadgets reports: Time Machine says it is "Waiting to Complete First Backup," but as it appears to be reaching its conclusion, Time Machine suddenly reports "Oldest backup: None" and "Latest backup: None," and then fails to offer any notice that the initial backup has successfully been performed at all. The issue seems to occur when Time Machine runs its first backup after either Monterey/Big Sur is first installed or the operating system is updated to the latest point release. While some users are complaining of different issues with Time Machine on different Macs and versions of macOS that are hard to replicate, one common complaint in particular has surfaced regarding Time Machine backups not completing for M1 Mac users running Monterey 12.0.1 or Big Sur 11.6.1. Apple's built-in Time Machine backup solution for macOS appears to be causing problems for some Mac users running the latest versions of Monterey and Big Sur, based on a steady trickle of reports on both the MacRumors Forums and Reddit.
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